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Life of a MOC
!WARNING! This post is wordy and long! Grab some coffee, popcorn, etc. whatever you need to do to stay awake lol.....
About this creation



I have seen some post “MOCaverseries” when they complete a certain amount of time here on MOCpages. Although I have nothing against such posts, they are not really my thing, but…. I do think it is fun to sit back and contemplate things at the end of the year. I always think that there is quite a bit of inspiration to be found in mulling over the past; not in a ruminative, obsessive fashion, but one that engenders contemplation, insight, and meditation.

This is one of the things I love about building with Lego, not only the building itself but of the platform it provides to emulate real-life phenomenon on sort of like a micro-scale level. I have said it before that although this is not a blog, I do think that it is fun to ruminate and muse a little about the hobby we all love so much. I truly think that Lego serves as a microcosm of real-life phenomena; both literally and figuratively.


First, to explain this post, I have to explain a bit about what is being measured and what metrics are involved. Simply put, I set out to crudely measure the “life of a MOC.” The following is a simple, crude measurement; I understand there are many more complex ways of measuring this phenomenon, but part of my intent was to fully consider the readership and maximize the numbers of readers that would find interest in what I am posting. Sometimes simplicity really is the best policy. I am using the following information to gauge “The life of a MOC” not because I care about MOC popularity but because I think it is fun to follow trends and view data that reveal underlying true phenomena about a MOC.

I am using MOC views to measure the life of a MOC not because I think they better emulate the phenomenon of interest than say…. “likes” (which, actually, I DO think that “views” better captures the life of a MOC than “likes”, but that is a conversation for another time) but because of this simple fact: “Likes” offer very poor information. Often, even in much, much, more popular MOCs then I could ever produce, the “likes” of a MOC die off to zilch, nada, or at least so few that there is simply nothing to measure after several months or years. Views on the other hand, even when a MOC is no longer “liked”, are still viewed for months and even years after submission and therefore there is continual data to measure. Others may disagree with this approach…..which is wonderful. But let me be clear, my approach is not because I think views better capture the life of a MOC then “likes”… my approach is because there is so much more information to actually measure (and I think it is unfair to say that a MOC is DEAD when it is still being viewed. Geriatric perhaps, but not dead). And, as you will see below, additional data provided by the almighty factor of Father Time is, really, the most important thing considered here.

So, what the heck am I actually saying!? Lol…..Looking at the time since submission and comparing overall views gives a sense of how “alive” a MOC has been during its lifetime. An easy calculation would be to divide the overall views by days that have passed since a model’s submission. For example (all data discussed were taken from the data point of DEC 10, 2015): My first rendition of a rock crawler has 2248 views, but has been on the site for 834 days. So, approximately 2.7 views per day. But…. that really isn’t the best way to depict the overall viewership of the MOC (as will be seen), and if that is what I am interested in then I have to look at things more closely.

Essentially what I did is look at the overall relationship between MOC views and MOC time since submission to capture the life of a MOC. Now, I get this appears overly simplistic, and there are many more complicated methods which may be much more accurate to examine my item of interest but I wanted to focus on something that most can understand and copy with their own pages. So, when I look at the relationship, and throw everything into a graph (simple scatterplot), it looks something like this:

(I apologize up front for the poor quality of the photos. MOCpages has always been behind in technology. I swear they were good quality when I uploaded them)




Essentially what this means is along the bottom of the graph you have the amount of days since each MOC was submitted and along the top you have the total amount of views for each MOC; and each dot represents a different MOC. Now, the straight line represents a line that fits all the dots, to the best it can (kind of like an average) and the curved line does as well, only it kinda curves with the data. The two numbers can look confusing….. the only thing that readers need to know is that the top one belongs to the curved line and the bottom to the straight line (you probably can't really even see them because of the degraded picture quality); and the bigger of the two (top number) essentially means that the curved line better fits the relationship between time since submission and overall views than does the straight line.

Why is this important? Because, what this means is that a simple total views divided by time since submission is not an entirely accurate way to depict “lively” versus “unlively” MOCs, because, as you can see in the graph, for most MOCs as time since submission increases the slope of the total views decreases; which can be interpreted as…. the longer your MOC stays on MOC pages the less it gets viewed; relative to the first days or weeks since it was posted. Common sense? Right? I mean, we all get that at first there is like a honeymoon period between your MOC and viewers where everything is new and therefore gets lots of hits (no pun intended…lol). But as time wears on the novelty wears off and viewers move on to your and others’ cool, new submissions.

The exception? When you make something really, really cool! Cool submissions (or at least “lively” ones) can buck this trend and keep receiving lots of views despite their progression into senility. And that is what a graph like this one captures (at least crudely). Everything above the curved line is “bucking the trend” so to speak. Those that are barely above the line buck the trend so little that they are not really worth being concerned about. But it is at this point I want to draw the reader’s attention to these little guys here:






These MOCs, in order (reading left to right), are my Lighted AROCS , NYM’s Unimog II , and Liebherr 1750 8.1 respectively. Now, although they don’t have the highest views per day I consider these my most “lively” MOCs. They have been bucking the trend for the longest time or greatest degree. The AROCs submission:



is kinda an exception (only been online for a short period of time), but interesting for teaching purposes because it follows the line of the Unimog and Crane submissions, but really it is too new that it really hasn’t had time to demonstrate its persistence to stay the course of the other ones and so I remain skeptical and fear that with time it may fall toward the line like other MOCs. The thing to watch for is if it remains on course with the Unimog and Crane. Statistically speaking, it likely won’t, but I am hopeful (only YOU can prevent her from plummeting towards the line! Lol…). NYM’s Unimog II:




has demonstrated persistence, and I consider if likely my second most lively MOC. It is beginning to stick out like a sore thumb and in terms of the interest of this post, that is a good thing. My Liebherr 1750 8.1:



I consider as my liveliest submission, by far. She really, really sticks out. She is not close to the line and shows no sign of regressing towards it. In fact, if it weren’t for her, she is such an outlier, the overall relationship between time since submission and overall views would be much stronger. She mixes everything up.

These three MOCs appear to be on a trail all their own (although admittedly, AROCS still has some proving to do, it could completely take another path). The steepness of their hypothetical increase between views and time of submission suggest that these three MOCs might be in “a league of their own.”



Here is another hypothetical line, in order from left to right, AROCS, Mechatropolis and my Millennium Falcon . These are my second placers; not necessarily stalwarts but certainly not the “weak-links” in the chain either. As you can see, AROCS is included in this hypothetical line as well because, as I explained, we are not entirely sure where she will end up.



That's about a wrap....not much more description is needed. Just perhaps a fun way to look at the activities of some of our posts here on MOCpages. And, if you look at all those well below the curved line, well, those are my duds. Not much surprise there, and no need for description (this post is long enough man!), as some submissions are full MOCs and more interesting and other submissions are simply techniques or events that have occurred while building real MOCs.

Anyways, hope you enjoyed the read. I hope this inspires others with enough MOC submissions to perhaps do the same. It is kind of fun to see the liveliness of our projects. I am also curious to see other methods of measuring the same phenomena. What I discovered in this little post is that simply dividing total views by time since submission does not adequately capture the viewership of a MOC. If the relationship were a linear one (no curve as described above), then it would be. But because views taper off over time, total views must carry more weight when a MOC has been on the site for longer than another MOC, because over time the likelihood of that view (s) declines more and more rapidly as time progresses further and further! A view for one's first submission is not the same as a view from a submission just an hour ago!










Comments

 I made it 
  December 29, 2015
Quoting Nick Barrett Very interesting; having considered it, I think total views is more significant than 'likes' in the long term. One of the more thought-provoking posts, Happy New Year to you!
Same to you friend. Yea, quite honestly, this is something that I think would be fun for others as well. It is quite easy to do.... simply throw your numbers in an excel file and viola!
 I like it 
  December 29, 2015
Very interesting; having considered it, I think total views is more significant than 'likes' in the long term. One of the more thought-provoking posts, Happy New Year to you!
 I made it 
  December 22, 2015
Quoting Stephan Niehoff Your works are all always a delight for me. In terms of technology I can always discover something new with you. Basically, you must only show your works sorted by Most Recent, and select an appropriate title. And done . Anyway my friend, nice to have you here.
Thanks Stephan..... it sure is sure is fun to tinker with all this stuff
 I like it 
  December 22, 2015
Your works are all always a delight for me. In terms of technology I can always discover something new with you. Basically, you must only show your works sorted by Most Recent, and select an appropriate title. And done . Anyway my friend, nice to have you here.
 I made it 
  December 21, 2015
Very true my friend. There certainly are some social processes going on here....It appears as though you have Lego acting as a microcosm of real life phenomena yourself! This is all part of the fun for me.... looks like it is for you as well.
Quoting Jeremy McCreary Very interesting analysis, NFP! I've notice similar trajectories in my own MOCs. I wonder about the nuts and bolts of the MOCpages processes behind such trends. Certainly, an MOC draws more views, likes, and comments when it's on the front page. (That seems to be true of all viewers -- even those who got an e-mail notification of the new MOC because they have me down as a favorite builder.) How long an MOC stays on the front page seems to depend on the number of likes and especially comments received in the first 2-3 days at most. My MOCs seem to need at least 3 likes =with= comments in the 1st day to even make the front page. Once an MOC of mine drops off the front page, the viewing, liking, and commenting rates all plummet, but the viewing rate less than the other two. In my case, even my most popular MOCs gain very few additional likes or comments after than happens -- i.e., they're all but dead. (Very frustrating.) Adding MOCs to groups doesn't seem to generate a lot of extra likes and comments, but it may help the viewing rate. Over the long haul, all my MOCs seem to average about 1 like per 20 views. Given the work my long pages ask of viewers, I take that as a compliment. What's interesting here is the rather small variance about that mean, which suggests in part a structural cause having to do with the way MOCpages works. And that leads to a final question with strategy implications: What are the various pathways that bring viewers to an MOC once it's dropped off the front page?
  December 21, 2015
Very interesting analysis, NFP! I've notice similar trajectories in my own MOCs. I wonder about the nuts and bolts of the MOCpages processes behind such trends. Certainly, an MOC draws more views, likes, and comments when it's on the front page. (That seems to be true of all viewers -- even those who got an e-mail notification of the new MOC because they have me down as a favorite builder.) How long an MOC stays on the front page seems to depend on the number of likes and especially comments received in the first 2-3 days at most. My MOCs seem to need at least 3 likes =with= comments in the 1st day to even make the front page. Once an MOC of mine drops off the front page, the viewing, liking, and commenting rates all plummet, but the viewing rate less than the other two. In my case, even my most popular MOCs gain very few additional likes or comments after than happens -- i.e., they're all but dead. (Very frustrating.) Adding MOCs to groups doesn't seem to generate a lot of extra likes and comments, but it may help the viewing rate. Over the long haul, all my MOCs seem to average about 1 like per 20 views. Given the work my long pages ask of viewers, I take that as a compliment. What's interesting here is the rather small variance about that mean, which suggests in part a structural cause having to do with the way MOCpages works. And that leads to a final question with strategy implications: What are the various pathways that bring viewers to an MOC once it's dropped off the front page?
 
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